SHILLER P/E: 39.8 — 99TH PERCENTILE INSIDER SELL/BUY RATIO: 4.83 — ALL TIME HIGH ABA CREDIT INDEX: 37.5 — 5TH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER IN CONTRACTION 10-YR TREASURY: 4.35% — HIGHEST IN OVER A YEAR MARGIN DEBT: $1.28T — 8TH STRAIGHT RECORD HIGH LATE CYCLE SIGNALS: 6/7 ACTIVE SHILLER P/E: 39.8 — 99TH PERCENTILE INSIDER SELL/BUY RATIO: 4.83 — ALL TIME HIGH ABA CREDIT INDEX: 37.5 — 5TH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER IN CONTRACTION 10-YR TREASURY: 4.35% — HIGHEST IN OVER A YEAR MARGIN DEBT: $1.28T — 8TH STRAIGHT RECORD HIGH LATE CYCLE SIGNALS: 6/7 ACTIVE
Market cycle alert — March 2026

Know exactly what to buy
before the crash hits.

6 of 7 late-cycle warning signals are active. When markets drop fast, most people freeze, panic, or do nothing. This is the plan you build before that happens.

Get the Crash Playbook — $29
One-time. No subscription.
Late-cycle signals
6/7
Active right now
Shiller P/E (CAPE)
39.8
99th percentile historically
Insider sell/buy ratio
4.83×
All-time high — Jan 2026
Margin debt
$1.28T
8th straight record high

Signal data current as of March 2026. Framework and methodology are timeless — individual figures update as conditions evolve. All buyers receive updates free.

The problem

When markets drop fast, thinking gets hard.

You've read the signals. You know something feels off. You even have stocks in mind. But when markets actually start falling — 10%, 20%, 30% — most people don't calmly open spreadsheets and calculate entry points.

They hesitate. They second-guess. They wait for "more clarity" that never comes. Or they panic and sell exactly the wrong things at exactly the wrong time.

The problem isn't that they can't build a plan. It's that they don't trust themselves to execute it when it matters.

"The S&P is down 28%. Your portfolio is bleeding. The news says it's getting worse."

Sell everything and wait it out
Go all-in at the first dip, run out of cash by -40%
Do nothing — paralyzed by uncertainty
Buy something random because it "feels cheap"
Pull out the plan. Buy Tranche 2. Move on.
What's inside
01
Signal Tracker
All 7 late-cycle warning indicators with current real data. Know exactly where we are in the cycle — updated against live macro signals.
Interactive checklist
02
Flash Sale Buy List
15 stocks across 3 tiers with exact entry price targets at -20%, -30%, and -40% drops. T1 core survivors, T2 deep value, T3 high risk/reward.
Live price targets
03
Tranche Deployment Plan
The exact 4-tranche system for deploying cash. When to buy, how much, and in what order — so you don't blow your ammo at -20% with nothing left for -40%.
Step-by-step
04
Recovery Projections
Three scenarios — fast (COVID), medium (2008), slow (dot-com) — with historical return multiples. Know what your $10k could become and when.
3 scenarios
05
Bottom Signal Radar
The 5 indicators that historically mark a market bottom — VIX extremes, panic volume, Fed intervention, and the one signal that matters most.
Know when to load up
06
Full Written Playbook
Every phase, every signal, every decision — documented in a 5,000-word markdown reference you can open when markets are moving and your brain isn't.
Complete reference doc
Current signal status — March 2026
P/E ratios historically stretched Shiller CAPE at 39.8 — 99th percentile of all historical data CONFIRMED
Insider selling accelerating 4.83× sell/buy ratio — exceeds peaks before GFC, dot-com, and COVID ALL-TIME HIGH
Credit quietly tightening ABA Credit Index at 37.5 — 5th straight quarter below neutral CONFIRMED
Rate cuts expected, economy weakening Jobs went negative in 5 of last 9 months. Unemployment at 4.4%. CONFIRMED
"This time is different" AI narrative Direct parallel to dot-com "internet changes everything" — 1999 CONFIRMED
Retail euphoria / easy money everywhere Was confirmed. BofA sentiment dropped to 6-month low — cracking now. CRACKING
IPO / meme behavior creeping back Crypto back, AI IPO pipeline building. Not full 2021 mania yet. MILD
Sample — $10k T1 deployment plan
Tranche 2 deployment · Market at -30%
$2,500 deploy
AAPL
entry $174
$1,000
MSFT
entry $269
$1,000
JPM
entry $210
$500
What people are saying
"I've been sitting on $30k not knowing what to do with it. This gave me an actual plan. Not vibes — a real plan with prices and amounts."
r/investingRetail investor, $30k portfolio
"The tranche system alone is worth it. I always go all-in too early and then have no cash for the real bottom. Not this time."
ProductHunt reviewSoftware developer, investor since 2018
"I could have built this myself. I didn't because I didn't want to do the research. $29 to skip all of that is an obvious yes."
Twitter/XFull-stack developer, first-time stock investor
Pricing

This is not a subscription. Not a newsletter. Not a course. It's a toolkit you buy once, own forever, and open when things start moving.

Complete Playbook
$29
one-time payment · everything included
  • Signal tracker (7 indicators)
  • Flash sale buy list (15 stocks)
  • Tranche deployment calculator
  • Full written playbook (MD)
  • Recovery projections tool
  • Bottom signal radar
Get Complete Playbook
Questions
Is this financial advice?
No. This is a research framework and planning tool based on historical market cycle analysis. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Make your own decisions, consult a professional if needed.
What if the crash doesn't happen?
The playbook is built around the idea of being prepared, not predictive. Markets can stay irrational longer than expected. But having a plan costs nothing — and being unprepared when it does hit costs everything. The signal data and entry targets remain useful regardless of timing.
I could build this myself. Why pay?
You could. The research took hours — cross-referencing Shiller P/E data, insider selling reports, credit condition surveys, historical recovery multiples, and building it into a coherent framework. If your time is worth more than $29, this is the shortcut.
What format does it come in?
Three standalone HTML files (no internet required, work in any browser) plus a complete markdown document. Download once, use offline, no accounts, no login.
Will there be updates?
Buyers get any updates to the toolkit for free. As market conditions evolve the price targets and signal data will be refreshed.
6/7 signals active

Build the plan before you need it.

When markets are dropping fast, you won't have time to think. You'll either have a plan or you won't.

Get the Crash Playbook — $29