Markets move in cycles. They always have. Understanding where you are in the cycle is the difference between buying at the top and buying at the bottom. This page walks through the four phases and shows you exactly what each one looks like — with real historical data.
Rising earnings, low unemployment, easy credit, growing confidence. Everyone is making money. New investors flood in. The financial press is optimistic.
GDP growth accelerating, corporate earnings beating estimates, low VIX (below 15), credit spreads tightening, IPO market active.
2003–2006, 2010–2014, 2017–2019, mid-2020 to 2021.
Typically 4–8 years. The longest expansion in US history was 2009–2020 (128 months).
Valuations stretched to extremes. Insiders selling. Credit tightening quietly while markets keep climbing. A dominant narrative ("AI changes everything") makes people believe this time is different. It never is.
Shiller CAPE above 30 (currently 39.8). Insider sell/buy ratio above 3x (currently 4.83x). Margin debt at records ($1.28T). Leading indicators declining. Yield curve dynamics shifting.
Markets can stay at the peak for months or even years. This is what makes it so dangerous — the longer it lasts, the more people believe it's not a peak. Every major crash has been preceded by a period where "the old rules don't apply."
Late 1999 (dot-com), mid-2007 (housing), late 2019 (pre-COVID — though COVID was the trigger, the fragility was already there).
Fast, violent, and disorienting. The S&P drops 10% in weeks. Then 20%. Media goes from "buying opportunity" to "is this the big one?" in days. Margin calls force leveraged positions to liquidate, creating cascading selling. Panic sets in.
Most investors freeze. They watch their portfolios bleed and tell themselves they'll "buy the dip" but never do. Or they sell at the bottom and lock in losses. Emotional decision-making replaces rational analysis.
If you have pre-determined entry points, a tranche system, and a tier structure — you don't have to think. You just execute. That's the entire point of Drawdown.
Slow at first. Nobody believes it. The media is still bearish. Volume is low. But prices quietly start climbing. Quality companies (T1) recover first. Then value plays (T2). High-risk names (T3) recover last but often return the most.
Every major fortune in public markets was built by buying during Phase 3 and holding through Phase 4. Buffett's best deals were 2008–2009. The COVID bottom buyers doubled in 18 months.
Extreme leverage + no Fed safety net = generational destruction.
Narrative-driven valuations collapse. But quality value stocks (Berkshire, JNJ, XOM) barely flinched.
The buyers at -50% made generational returns.
The fastest and most rewarding recovery in market history.
Based on the convergence of 6 out of 7 late-cycle indicators, we are in Phase 2 — late cycle. The data matches the periods immediately preceding the dot-com bust and the GFC more closely than any other point in modern market history. This does not mean a crash is imminent. It means the conditions that precede crashes are present. The difference between this time and every other time is whether you have a plan.
The cycle is predictable.
Your response doesn't have to be emotional.